Rome’s dream final: Why both Gauff and Paolini have a real shot

Italian tennis is in full flower.

Team Italia is your reigning Billie Jean King Cup champions on the women’s side and two-time title holders in the men’s Davis Cup competition.

Jasmine Paolini and Sara Errani won the Olympic gold medal in doubles last summer and Lorenzo Musetti took bronze. Jannik Sinner is the World No. 1 on the ATP Tour, one of seven Italian men ranked among the Top 50.

The only thing missing? A national champion in Rome. Adriano Panatta was the last Italian man to win the title -- and that was 1971. Forty years ago, Raffaella Reggi was the women’s winner.

Paolini and Sinner -- who is still alive in the semifinals -- can end that monumental streak at this edition of the Internazionali BNL d’Italia. 

Foro Italico will be buzzing when the No. 6-seeded Paolini takes the court Saturday evening (5 p.m. local time (11 a.m.  ET) for the women’s final against No. 4 Coco Gauff. Paolini is the first Italian woman to reach the final since Errani in 2014.

“She’s part of my team,” Paolini told reporters. “She watch many, many matches. Yeah, last match she was a key part because she help me a lot. It’s amazing to be in the final as she did.”

The Italian may have caught a break when Gauff won a 3-hour, 32-minute melee against Zheng Qinwen, the longest match of the season so far -- and the longest of Gauff’s career. While Paolini had lost all four matches to Zheng, she’s won one of three against Gauff. Notably, the last time they met Paolini prevailed in straight sets one month ago in the Stuttgart quarterfinals.

We make the compelling case for the two finalists:

Advantage, Gauff

It’s hard to overstate her accomplishments in the Eternal City.

Gauff won five matches to advance to the final in Madrid, where she lost to World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka. And then she summoned the will to win five more to reach Rome’s championship match. That’s 10 wins in 11 tries on red clay and a testament to her moxie, grit, determination -- and any other quality you would care to name.

Gauff had lost her two previous semifinals in Rome to Iga Swiatek, and just when it looked like she’d be 0-3, she rallied from down 5-3 in the third set to win by this gripping scoreline: 7-6(3), 4-6, 7-6(4).

As is often the case, Gauff won with something less than her best tennis.

“Overall I’m just happy,” she told reporters. “Wasn’t my best level at all, to be honest. Just happy to get through it and through to another final.”

At 21, she’s the youngest woman ever to reach the finals in Madrid and Rome. And she’s already registered four victories against Top 10 players on clay this season with the possibility of a fifth. Gauff is looking to become the youngest American player to win the women’s title at the Italian Open since Serena Williams in 2002.

The priority for Gauff will be her serve. She’ll have to clean up the 15 double faults she struck against Zheng -- she won only 20 of 57 points on second serve.

Her forehand was serviceable, but the backhand remains her money shot. Gauff is hoping the earlier start will quicken conditions, since she has a power advantage over Paolini.

“That was a tough match,” Gauff said of her 6-4, 6-3 loss to Paolini in Stuttgart. “She played well. I think especially here with the home crowd behind her, she’s going to be playing some great tennis. I have to expect that. 

“Hopefully I can bring a better level and hopefully win the title.”

Advantage, Paolini

Yes, the pressure on this 29-year-old will be immense as she’s trying to become first Italian woman to win the title in Rome in four decades -- a long, long time in real life, but even longer in terms of tennis.

In a sense, even though she’s only the third woman to reach the Rome final, she’s flying a little under the radar with the return of Sinner following a three-month drug suspension.

Paolini looked nervous early in her semifinal match against Peyton Stearns, falling behind 4-1. After weathering two set points, Paolini settled down and won 12 of the last 14 games. Her defense is super-sound, but she also unleashed a few 90 mph forehands against Stearns, who looked weary after winning three straight third-set tiebreaks.

Paolini is the third oldest woman to reach her first Rome final, so her energy will have to be dialed in at maximum. Although the 21-year-old Gauff went past midnight against Zheng, she’ll also have the benefit of a full day off and should be far fresher when they take the court.

You have to admire Paolini’s performance here. Last year, she reached the finals at Roland Garros and Wimbledon and broke into the Top 5. This year, she’s been fielding a steady stream of questions about sustainability. 

“I’m trying to be in the mindset that last year was a great year, but it give me a lot of confidence,” Paolini said. “I have to remember that, a lot of experience that I have in my belt, under my belt. At the same time this year is another year. It’s different, completely different story. 

“At the same time trying to repeat myself, Look, remember that last year we did an amazing year.”

A quick start is vital for Paolini. She’s won 18 of 19 matches this year when she takes the first set.