Sabalenka, Zheng, Gauff, Andreeva: Who makes the semifinal cut on Wednesday in Rome?

Coco Gauff and Mirra Andreeva were preparing for their Monday matches when a ceremonial flyover shook the grounds of Foro Italico. Being young and technically adept, they had their phones, documenting the red, green and white smoke, faster than a forehand winner.

Take a picture Wednesday when they meet in the quarterfinals at the Internazionali BNL d’Italia -- this is the fourth meeting between these two Top 10 players, destined to be repeated many, many times. 

The other matchup -- between World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka and Olympic gold medalist Zheng Qinwen -- is worthy of a frame as well.

We make the case for the four quarterfinalists vying for the last two spots in Thursday’s semifinals:

No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka vs. No. 8 Zheng Qinwen

Head-to-head: 6-0, Sabalenka, who took the most recent match 6-2, 7-5 back in March in the Miami quarterfinals.

The case for Sabalenka: No one on the planet is playing better right now.

Sabalenka won the hard-court title in the humidity of Miami, took the crown in the altitude and on the red clay of Madrid. Now she’s aiming for the title in Rome -- which would be a career first.

For those of you counting at home, that’s 15 straight match-wins in these WTA 1000 events.

Technically, Sabalenka defeated Marta Kostyuk in straight sets, 6-1, 7-6(8) in the fourth round, but it required more than two hours. The hitting was ferocious. Sabalenka actually saved the first 12 break points against her, then saved a set point in that second-set tiebreak before converting her third match point.

Sabalenka’s won 12 of 13 sets against Zheng, although they’ve never met on clay. With her clay nemesis Iga Swiatek already out of the tournament, Sabalenka is going to like -- no, love is probably a more accurate word -- her chances going forward.

The case for Zheng: Regardless of that daunting head-to-head, Zheng has a genuine confidence on this particular surface.

You may remember, she produced a 13-match winning streak on the dirt that began in Rabat, continued at Roland Garros in the Olympics and concluded this year in Charleston. She would do well to replay scenes from the gold-medal run in Paris in her mind when she gets into tight spots against Sabalenka.

Zheng’s isn’t the first name that comes to mind when discussing clay prowess, but consider this: In the past three years, only Iga Swiatek (11) and Sabalenka (nine) have reached more clay-court quarterfinals at the WTA level than Zheng (seven), even with Gauff. Only Swiatek (51) and Sabalenka (40) -- the best two players in the world for three years running --  have more clay wins than Zheng’s 33 at the WTA Tour level.

In the Round of 16, Zheng cooled off Bianca Andreescu with a 7-5, 6-1 win. She’ll have to clean up her service game, though, after suffering nine double faults.

No. 4 Coco Gauff vs. No. 7 Mirra Andreeva

Head-to-head: Gauff, 3-0, defeating her at Roland Garros 2023, the US Open 2023 and two weeks ago in Madrid.

The case for Gauff: She might be the fastest player in the women’s game and her defense always keeps her in the match. But if she continues to hit forehands and serves the way she did against Emma Raducanu, she might be unbeatable.

Those two areas have been challenging at times for Gauff, but everything was in sync in that 6-1, 6-2 victory. Gauff won 39 of her 59 service points and saved all three break points that Raducanu held. She also had one more winner than unforced errors, a critical statistic on the slow red clay in Rome.

Gauff recently turned 21 but she's already a veteran when it comes to managing conditions. Wind was a big factor in her win over Raducanu.

“I’m from Florida, so I’m used to kind of dealing with it, working with it,” Gauff said. “Sometimes you have to learn to just let go with the wind, know that you just have to kind of move that extra step. 

“Some points aren’t going to be won in pretty ways, and a lot of points towards the end were won in ugly ways. That’s part of tennis in the wind. It’s not always pretty.”

And that wisdom is one of the emerging beauties of Gauff’s game.

The case for Andreeva: In 2016, Dominic Thiem beat Alexander Zverev in a third-round match at Roland Garros. Thiem, then 22, was asked afterward what the difference was.

“About three years,” he said referring to the 19-year-old Zverev.

That’s how it feels with Gauff and Andreeva at the moment. Both players have made an early career of setting new precedents for young players, but at 21, Gauff is three years older and more physically developed.

Sure, Andreeva is 0-3 against Gauff, but she seems to be closing the gap. In the quarterfinals at Madrid, Andreeva came out swinging and actually had two set points with Gauff down 4-5. But Gauff escaped and Andreeva was visibly disheartened on the way to a 7-5, 6-1 loss.

This will be a teachable moment for Andreeva’s coach Conchita Martínez, a four-time champion in Rome (1993-96). Andreeva will go in with a comprehensive knowledge of Gauff’s game and attempt to apply pressure early.

Andreeva’s riding a surge of momentum after coming back to defeat No. 22 Clara Tauson 5-7, 6-3, 6-2 in the Round of 16.