Madrid semifinal preview: Top seed Sabalenka leads final-four lineup

MADRID -- Aryna Sabalenka has all the tools.

The World No. 1 is a complete player -- and becoming more subtly skilled with every match she plays. One thing she doesn’t get as much credit for is her mental poise in moments under pressure.

On Wednesday in the Mutua Madrid Open quarterfinals, Sabalenka was vigorously tested by the talented Marta Kostyuk in a match that required two incredibly tense tiebreaks. Sabalenka was steely and stellar, winning 7-6(4), 7-6(7).

Madrid: Draws | Scores | Order of play

Naturally, the second-set tiebreak was briefly interrupted by rain. When the roof was closed, Sabalenka trailed 5-4, but she closed the deal with a ferocious backhand winner down the line that saved a set point -- one of three in that extra session.

The last woman into Thursday’s semifinals, after a match that consumed more than two-and-one-half hours, Sabalenka next faces No. 17 seed Elina Svitolina, a resounding 6-2, 6-1 winner over unseeded Moyuka Uchijima.

Thursday's earlier semifinal features No. 2 seed Iga Swiatek against No. 4 seed Coco Gauff.  Swiatek dropped the first set to Madison Keys and came back to win 0-6, 6-3, 6-2. Gauff defeated newly minted 18-year-old Mirra Andreeva 7-5, 6-1.

In Wednesday's final match between Sabalenka and Kostyuk, the first set was an 85-minute thing of beauty. After saving nine of 10 break points against her, Sabalenka won a taut tiebreak.

It was 3-all in that breaker when Sabalenka ran off three straight points. Kostyuk was serving when a forehand sailed wide, and then Sabalenka went to a familiar pattern in the ad-court, serving out wide, then blistering a forehand that nicked the line. After Kostyuk saved a second set point, Sabalenka converted the third when Kostyuk’s backhand found the net.

"Every time I come here," Sabalenka told the crowd afterward, "I always hope I'm going to stay until the last stage."

That might be almost too much to bear. Tennis fans will have to try and not get ahead of themselves, for there is a possibility of a third consecutive Madrid final between the top two players in the world, Sabalenka and Swiatek.

They could become the first players to meet in a WTA 1000 (formerly Tier I) final for three years in a row since the format was introduced 35 years ago.

Let's break down tomorrow's semifinals:

No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka vs. No. 17 Elina Svitolina

The case for Sabalenka:

No one does duress like Sabalenka.

We refer you to the category of break points saved – when the pressure is greatest on a serving player. Coming into the match with Kostyuk, no one had saved as many break points this year as Sabalenka -- 141. Make that 154 after the Kostyuk match.

With all due respect to Swiatek’s prowess on clay, consider this: In Madrid, where the conditions make points a little quicker, Sabalenka has won two titles -- incredibly the only clay titles of her career. Swiatek has one Madrid title.

Sabalenka was a little unsettled in moments against Kostyuk, but you could see how badly she wants this tournament.

The Madrid numbers are sensational: Sabalenka is 21-4 here. She is into her sixth semifinal of the season -- Brisbane, Australian Open, Indian Wells, Miami, Stuttgart and now Madrid.

And there’s this: Svitolina has won only one match against Sabalenka in the five they’ve played.

“I think the end of both sets were pretty tough,” Sabalenka said after her win on Thursday. “I think the whole match, I was handling myself because of the conditions. It wasn’t about tennis, it was just about the way you can handle yourself and the way you can focus on yourself. That’s what I mean by handling myself. Because I think in those conditions anyone can win, so it’s nothing about tennis.”

The case for Svitolina:

Even when she put together that phenomenal run in 2023 after maternity leave, Svitolina never won 11 consecutive matches on clay -- that is, until now. And, remarkably, she’s won them all in straight sets.

That’s a lot of momentum for Sabalenka to deal with. True, she’s 1-4 against Sabalenka, but two of the three matches they played on clay went the three-set distance.

“Played with Aryna a couple of times last year, had some tough battles,” Svitolina said, before she knew who her opponent would be. “Also losing from the two match points in Rome, that was a big fight out there on the court. So, yeah, it’s going to be a big challenge, doesn't matter [which player] I will be facing tomorrow.

Svitolina turned 30 last fall and this is the best she’s played since knocking out 15 straight victories in 2017. No one has more wins on the dirt this year. The most recent was a definitive 6-2, 6-1 win over the surprising Moyuka Uchijima. Svitolina won 30 of 45 points on her serve and broke Uchijima five times.

And then there’s this: Svitolina has made a habit of raising her game against reigning World No. 1 players. She’s a stout 7-7 against that group, and since 2000 only three women have won more in that setting – Serena and Venus Williams and Lindsay Davenport.

Svitolina knows she’s playing well and has heard the discussion of her resurgent game.

“Keep winning, that's what I'm hoping for,” she said.

“I have a tough challenge in the semifinal. I try to not focus too much on the numbers because sometimes they can be disturbing, but of course everyone and every conversation is mentioning that. I draw the confidence from all those statistics that I have.”

No. 2 Iga Swiatek vs. No. 4 Coco Gauff

The case for Swiatek:

Based on their history, the defending champion clearly is the favorite here.

Swiatek has won nine consecutive matches in Madrid -- and 15 of 16 going back to her loss to Sabalenka in the 2023 final. Sure, she’s been scuffing – at least by Swiatek’s sterling standards -- dropping a set in three of her four matches. But she eventually prevailed every time.

Oh, and she’s beaten Gauff 11 of the 14 times they’ve played.

The number on clay is 5-0 -- all in Rome and Paris -- and it’s worth taking a deeper dive: The first time they played on clay was four years ago in Rome and 17-year-old Gauff was impressive, losing 7-6(3), 6-3. Since then, she’s never gotten more than four games in a set on the surface.

Swiatek is famous for dropping 6-0 sets on opponents but, in the quarterfinal against Madison Keys, the roles were reversed. Sensing that Keys was playing at a surreal level, Swiatek did not panic. Keys, who was credited with only two unforced errors in the first set, had 33 in the final two. Swiatek had only 10 in those critical frames.

Don’t over-think it. This is the four-time French Open champion we’re talking about, playing on her favorite surface.

The case for Gauff:

She fought hard in her 7-5, 6-1 quarterfinal victory over Mirra Andreeva, saving two set points in that first frame.

There’s another way to look at that awkward head-to-head. Swiatek once led 11-1, but Gauff has won the past two – on hard courts, at the WTA Finals in group play and earlier this year at the United Cup in Australia.

What changed?

“Just belief,” Gauff told reporters Wednesday. “In the beginning of our matchups, she was a top player, and I felt like I maybe kind of wrote myself off before the match even came. I don't think about that head-to-head anymore. Now I just treat it as a new match, new opportunity each time.”

And, yes, she’s never beaten Swiatek on clay, but those matches were all played in Paris and Rome, where the courts are noticeably slower than Madrid.

Gauff’s defense is always going to be there; she and Swiatek might be the two best movers on the Hologic WTA Tour. She’s been working hard to make her forehand and serve more consistent under coach Wim Fissette. Gauff lost a single point on her first serve in the second set (15 of 16) and saved two of four break points over the course of the match. She pressured Andreeva for 16 break opportunities and converted five.

After dropping the first set in her opening match to Dayana Yastremska, she’s ripped off eight straight -- against some increasingly tough customers. She turned 21 last month and has developed the physical strength to hang with Swiatek the way she did in Riyadh and Sydney.

“I always feel like I have a good chance against anybody I play. I lost the first set this tournament, 6-0, and everybody was like, `Ooh, she's going to lose next round.’

"I’m going to expect her to play some great tennis and probably her best tennis, and I'll try to match that by playing my best tennis.”